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Real Zaragoza II vs Villanueva CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Real Zaragoza II
Real Zaragoza II
CANC
00:00
Villanueva CF
Villanueva CF
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 34Ciudad Deportiva del Real Zaragoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Real Zaragoza II67%
×Draw20%
Villanueva CF12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Zaragoza II
1.97
Villanueva CF
0.70

Real Zaragoza II creates 181% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 30 away

creates per match

Real Zaragoza II
2.16
Villanueva CF
0.73

allows per match

Real Zaragoza II
0.66
Villanueva CF
1.77

finishing

Real Zaragoza II+0.00on par
Villanueva CF+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Zaragoza II ↓

Villanueva CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Zaragoza II or draw
88%
Real Zaragoza II or Villanueva CF
80%
Draw or Villanueva CF
33%

Winning margin

Real Zaragoza II wins by 2+
42%
Villanueva CF wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Real Zaragoza II 1+ goals
86%
Real Zaragoza II 2+ goals
58%
Real Zaragoza II 3+ goals
31%
Villanueva CF 1+ goals
50%
Villanueva CF 2+ goals
16%
Villanueva CF 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Zaragoza II (draw refunded)
84%
Villanueva CF (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Zaragoza II at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

Villanueva CF away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Zaragoza II attack 2.16 + Villanueva CF defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.97

Villanueva CF attack 0.73 + Real Zaragoza II defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Real Zaragoza II scores more
67%
level
20%
Villanueva CF scores more
12%

Real Zaragoza II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Real Zaragoza II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Zaragoza II face Villanueva CF (Tercera División RFEF - Group 17)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 returns with Real Zaragoza II hosting Villanueva CF. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Real Zaragoza II host Villanueva CF at Ciudad Deportiva del Real Zaragoza.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.