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Real Zaragoza II vs Santa Anastasia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Real Zaragoza II
Real Zaragoza II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Santa Anastasia
Santa Anastasia
4/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 31Ciudad Deportiva del Real Zaragoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Real Zaragoza II62%
×Draw22%
Santa Anastasia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Zaragoza II
1.83
Santa Anastasia
0.80

Real Zaragoza II creates 129% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 16 away

creates per match

Real Zaragoza II
2.16
Santa Anastasia
0.94

allows per match

Real Zaragoza II
0.66
Santa Anastasia
1.50

finishing

Real Zaragoza II+0.00on par
Santa Anastasia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Zaragoza II ↓

Santa Anastasia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Zaragoza II or draw
84%
Real Zaragoza II or Santa Anastasia
78%
Draw or Santa Anastasia
38%

Winning margin

Real Zaragoza II wins by 2+
36%
Santa Anastasia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Zaragoza II 1+ goals
84%
Real Zaragoza II 2+ goals
54%
Real Zaragoza II 3+ goals
28%
Santa Anastasia 1+ goals
55%
Santa Anastasia 2+ goals
19%
Santa Anastasia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Zaragoza II (draw refunded)
79%
Santa Anastasia (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Zaragoza II at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

Santa Anastasia away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Zaragoza II attack 2.16 + Santa Anastasia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Santa Anastasia attack 0.94 + Real Zaragoza II defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Real Zaragoza II scores more
62%
level
22%
Santa Anastasia scores more
16%

Real Zaragoza II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Real Zaragoza II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Zaragoza II 2 – 1 Santa Anastasia

Real Zaragoza II beat Santa Anastasia 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Real Zaragoza in Cuarte de Huerva.