Real Zaragoza II 3–0 Cuarte: Result & Stats

Real Zaragoza II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cuarte

2/27/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 25Ciudad Deportiva del Real Zaragoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Real Zaragoza II54%

×Draw26%

Cuarte21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Zaragoza IIExpected goals in this matchCuarte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.87

Real Zaragoza II

1.56

Cuarte

0.87

Real Zaragoza II creates 79% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 112 away

2.16

creates per match

1.08

0.66

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Real Zaragoza II

2.16

Cuarte

1.08

allows per match

Real Zaragoza II

0.66

Cuarte

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Zaragoza II+0.00on par

Cuarte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Zaragoza II ↓

Cuarte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Zaragoza II or draw

79%

Real Zaragoza II or Cuarte

74%

Draw or Cuarte

46%

Winning margin

Real Zaragoza II wins by 2+

28%

Cuarte wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Zaragoza II 1+ goals

79%

Real Zaragoza II 2+ goals

46%

Real Zaragoza II 3+ goals

21%

Cuarte 1+ goals

58%

Cuarte 2+ goals

22%

Cuarte 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Zaragoza II (draw refunded)

72%

Cuarte (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Zaragoza II at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

Cuarte away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Zaragoza II attack 2.16 + Cuarte defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cuarte attack 1.08 + Real Zaragoza II defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Zaragoza II scores more

54%

level

26%

Cuarte scores more

21%

Real Zaragoza II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Zaragoza II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff