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Real Zaragoza II vs Caspe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Real Zaragoza II
Real Zaragoza II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Caspe
Caspe
2/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 23Ciudad Deportiva del Real Zaragoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Real Zaragoza II58%
×Draw25%
Caspe18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Zaragoza II
1.63
Caspe
0.78

Real Zaragoza II creates 109% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 83 away

creates per match

Real Zaragoza II
2.16
Caspe
0.89

allows per match

Real Zaragoza II
0.66
Caspe
1.10

finishing

Real Zaragoza II+0.00on par
Caspe+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Zaragoza II ↓

Caspe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Zaragoza II or draw
82%
Real Zaragoza II or Caspe
75%
Draw or Caspe
42%

Winning margin

Real Zaragoza II wins by 2+
31%
Caspe wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Zaragoza II 1+ goals
80%
Real Zaragoza II 2+ goals
48%
Real Zaragoza II 3+ goals
22%
Caspe 1+ goals
54%
Caspe 2+ goals
18%
Caspe 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Zaragoza II (draw refunded)
76%
Caspe (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Zaragoza II at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.66 · 44 matches

Caspe away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.10 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Zaragoza II attack 2.16 + Caspe defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.63

Caspe attack 0.89 + Real Zaragoza II defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Zaragoza II scores more
58%
level
25%
Caspe scores more
18%

Real Zaragoza II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Zaragoza II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Real Zaragoza II 2–1 Caspe

Real Zaragoza II beat Caspe 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva del Real Zaragoza in Cuarte de Huerva.