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Real vs União de Leiria — Liga 3 2021

Real
Real
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
9/16/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 4Estádio do Real SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Real27%
×Draw28%
União de Leiria46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real
0.95
União de Leiria
1.34

União de Leiria creates 41% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 29 away

creates per match

Real
0.93
União de Leiria
1.55

allows per match

Real
1.14
União de Leiria
0.97

finishing

Real+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real or draw
54%
Real or União de Leiria
72%
Draw or União de Leiria
73%

Winning margin

Real wins by 2+
9%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Real 1+ goals
61%
Real 2+ goals
25%
Real 3+ goals
7%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
74%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
39%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Real (draw refunded)
37%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real attack 0.93 + União de Leiria defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

União de Leiria attack 1.55 + Real defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real scores more
27%
level
28%
União de Leiria scores more
46%

União de Leiria at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Real 1–0 União de Leiria

Real beat União de Leiria 1-0 in Liga 3 on September 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio do Real SC in Queluz.