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Real vs Rabo Peixe — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Real
Real
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rabo Peixe
Rabo Peixe
1/24/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 13Estádio do Real SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Real47%
×Draw28%
Rabo Peixe25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real
1.36
Rabo Peixe
0.91

Real creates 49% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Real
1.45
Rabo Peixe
1.09

allows per match

Real
0.73
Rabo Peixe
1.27

finishing

Real+0.00on par
Rabo Peixe+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real ↓

Rabo Peixe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real or draw
75%
Real or Rabo Peixe
72%
Draw or Rabo Peixe
53%

Winning margin

Real wins by 2+
22%
Rabo Peixe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real 1+ goals
74%
Real 2+ goals
39%
Real 3+ goals
16%
Rabo Peixe 1+ goals
60%
Rabo Peixe 2+ goals
23%
Rabo Peixe 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real (draw refunded)
65%
Rabo Peixe (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Rabo Peixe away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real attack 1.45 + Rabo Peixe defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Rabo Peixe attack 1.09 + Real defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real scores more
47%
level
28%
Rabo Peixe scores more
25%

Real at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real vs Rabo Peixe

Rabo Peixe beat Real 1-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on January 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio do Real SC in Queluz.