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Real vs Estrela Vendas Novas — Taça de Portugal 2018

Real
Real
FT
4 – 1
Estrela Vendas Novas
Estrela Vendas Novas
9/8/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio do Real SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Real54%
×Draw22%
Estrela Vendas Novas23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real
1.90
Estrela Vendas Novas
1.17

Real creates 62% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Real
1.80
Estrela Vendas Novas
1.33

allows per match

Real
1.00
Estrela Vendas Novas
2.00

finishing

Real+0.00on par
Estrela Vendas Novas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real ↓

Estrela Vendas Novas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Real or draw
77%
Real or Estrela Vendas Novas
78%
Draw or Estrela Vendas Novas
46%

Winning margin

Real wins by 2+
31%
Estrela Vendas Novas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real 1+ goals
85%
Real 2+ goals
56%
Real 3+ goals
29%
Estrela Vendas Novas 1+ goals
69%
Estrela Vendas Novas 2+ goals
33%
Estrela Vendas Novas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real (draw refunded)
70%
Estrela Vendas Novas (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Estrela Vendas Novas away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real attack 1.80 + Estrela Vendas Novas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Estrela Vendas Novas attack 1.33 + Real defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real scores more
54%
level
22%
Estrela Vendas Novas scores more
23%

Real at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Real 4–1 Estrela Vendas Novas

Real beat Estrela Vendas Novas 4-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Real SC in Queluz.