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Real vs Cova De Piedade — Liga 3 2021

Real
Real
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
2/5/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 18Estádio do Real SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real38%
×Draw29%
Cova De Piedade33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real
1.18
Cova De Piedade
1.07

Real creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

creates per match

Real
0.93
Cova De Piedade
1.00

allows per match

Real
1.14
Cova De Piedade
1.43

finishing

Real+0.00on par
Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real ↓

Cova De Piedade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real or draw
67%
Real or Cova De Piedade
71%
Draw or Cova De Piedade
62%

Winning margin

Real wins by 2+
16%
Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Real 1+ goals
69%
Real 2+ goals
33%
Real 3+ goals
12%
Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
66%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
29%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real (draw refunded)
54%
Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real attack 0.93 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.18

Cova De Piedade attack 1.00 + Real defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real scores more
38%
level
29%
Cova De Piedade scores more
33%

Real at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Real 1–0 Cova De Piedade

Real beat Cova De Piedade 1-0 in Liga 3 on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio do Real SC in Queluz.