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Real vs Amora — Liga 3 2021

Real
Real
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Amora
Amora
1/14/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 14Estádio do Real SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Real36%
×Draw29%
Amora35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real
1.11
Amora
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 56 away

creates per match

Real
0.93
Amora
1.05

allows per match

Real
1.14
Amora
1.30

finishing

Real+0.00on par
Amora+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real ↓

Amora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real or draw
65%
Real or Amora
71%
Draw or Amora
64%

Winning margin

Real wins by 2+
15%
Amora wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Real 1+ goals
67%
Real 2+ goals
30%
Real 3+ goals
10%
Amora 1+ goals
66%
Amora 2+ goals
30%
Amora 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real (draw refunded)
51%
Amora (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Amora away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real attack 0.93 + Amora defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Amora attack 1.05 + Real defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Real scores more
36%
level
29%
Amora scores more
35%

Real at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Real 0–1 Amora

Amora beat Real 1-0 in Liga 3 on January 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio do Real SC in Queluz.