Real Valladolid II 1–3 Zamora: Result & Stats

Real Valladolid II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Zamora

Víctor Narro 34'

Adri Herrera 88'

Gorri 63'

Dani Hernández 51'

12/19/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Real Valladolid II36%

×Draw27%

Zamora37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchZamora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.25

Real Valladolid II

1.24

Zamora

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 69 away

1.20

creates per match

1.04

1.47

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

1.20

Zamora

1.04

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

1.47

Zamora

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Zamora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

63%

Real Valladolid II or Zamora

73%

Draw or Zamora

64%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

16%

Zamora wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

71%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

35%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

13%

Zamora 1+ goals

71%

Zamora 2+ goals

36%

Zamora 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

50%

Zamora (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 1.20 + Zamora defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.24

Zamora attack 1.04 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

36%

level

27%

Zamora scores more

37%

Zamora at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

34'

40'

44'

46'

Lucas Rosa← Apa

46'

Marcos Baselga← Kepa Vieites

47'

J. Fernandez

51'

54'

57'

63'

64'

Adri Herrera← Mario Losada

64'

Julián Luque← Javi Navas

66'

Slavy← Fran López

69'

74'

L. Rosa

77'

Dani Espejo← Dani Hernández

78'

C. Parra

82'

Diego Moreno← Sergio Nieto

86'

Dali← Paulo Vitor

88'

Adri Herrera

90+4'

90+5'

90+1'

Piña← Jorge Fernández

Real

Zamora

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Júlio Baptista

46'▲Lucas Rosa←▼Apa

66'▲Slavy←▼Fran López

82'▲Diego Moreno←▼Sergio Nieto

86'▲Dali←▼Paulo Vitor

Real Valladolid II substitutes

RosaSlavyMorenoDaliAlemánAcevesCastriRiveraAmoahPalomequeÁlvarezCanito

Manager: Yago Iglesias

46'▲Marcos Baselga←▼Kepa Vieites

64'▲Adri Herrera←▼Mario Losada

64'▲Julián Luque←▼Javi Navas

77'▲Dani Espejo←▼Dani Hernández

90+1'▲Piña←▼Jorge Fernández

Zamora substitutes

BaselgaHerreraLuqueEspejoPiñaCosciaGarayMunguíaBaquéMapisaAstray

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Valladolid II 1–3 Zamora

Zamora beat Real Valladolid II 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 19, 2021.

Goals: Víctor Narro (34'), Dani Hernández (51'), Gorri (63'), Adri Herrera (88').

The match was played at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural in Valladolid.

Real Valladolid II vs Zamora — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Valladolid II 1–3 Zamora