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Real Valladolid II vs UD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
CANC
00:00
UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
3/29/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Valladolid II51%
×Draw26%
UD Logroñés23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Valladolid II
1.49
UD Logroñés
0.89

Real Valladolid II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 32 away

creates per match

Real Valladolid II
2.07
UD Logroñés
1.06

allows per match

Real Valladolid II
0.71
UD Logroñés
0.91

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par
UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

UD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw
77%
Real Valladolid II or UD Logroñés
74%
Draw or UD Logroñés
49%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
26%
UD Logroñés wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
77%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
44%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
19%
UD Logroñés 1+ goals
59%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
22%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
69%
UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 2.07 + UD Logroñés defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.49

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Real Valladolid II defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more
51%
level
26%
UD Logroñés scores more
23%

Real Valladolid II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Valladolid II face UD Logroñés (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with Real Valladolid II hosting UD Logroñés. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Real Valladolid II host UD Logroñés at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.