Real Valladolid II 0–2 Sporting Gijón II

Real Valladolid II

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting Gijón II

Álex Zalaya 82'

Berto González 36' (pen)

2/3/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Real Valladolid II41%

×Draw28%

Sporting Gijón II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.07

Real Valladolid II

1.27

Sporting Gijón II

1.07

Real Valladolid II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 27 away

1.20

creates per match

0.67

1.47

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

1.20

Sporting Gijón II

0.67

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

1.47

Sporting Gijón II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Sporting Gijón II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

69%

Real Valladolid II or Sporting Gijón II

72%

Draw or Sporting Gijón II

59%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

18%

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

72%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

36%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

14%

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

66%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

29%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

57%

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 1.20 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sporting Gijón II attack 0.67 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

41%

level

28%

Sporting Gijón II scores more

31%

Real Valladolid II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Berto GonzálezPenalty

54'

Dali← Elliot Gómez

54'

Paulo Vitor← Fran Álvarez

65'

K. Kone← Berto González

68'

Raúl Uche← Sergio Benito

75'

Diego Tejón← Iván Elena

77'

82'

87'

87'

88'

Dani Queipo← César García

88'

David Fernández← Lucas Suárez

Real

Sporting

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Baraja

54'▲Dali←▼Elliot Gómez

54'▲Paulo Vitor←▼Fran Álvarez

68'▲Raúl Uche←▼Sergio Benito

77'▲Mario Maroto←▼Moha

Real Valladolid II substitutes

DaliVitorUcheMarotoFreitasCarroPérezNietoSocorro

Manager: Sergio Sánchez

65'▲K. Kone←▼Berto González

75'▲Diego Tejón←▼Iván Elena

88'▲Dani Queipo←▼César García

88'▲David Fernández←▼Lucas Suárez

Sporting Gijón II substitutes

KoneTejónQueipoFernándezSánchezArduraAspraDacalÁlvarez

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Valladolid II 0–2 Sporting Gijón II

Sporting Gijón II beat Real Valladolid II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 3, 2021.

Goals: Berto González (36' pen), Álex Zalaya (82').

The match was played at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural in Valladolid.

Real Valladolid II vs Sporting Gijón II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Valladolid II 0–2 Sporting Gijón II