Real Valladolid II 0–1 Rayo Majadahonda

Real Valladolid II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rayo Majadahonda

Raúl Sánchez 77'

10/23/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Real Valladolid II39%

×Draw27%

Rayo Majadahonda34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchRayo Majadahonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.21

Real Valladolid II

1.33

Rayo Majadahonda

1.21

Real Valladolid II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 72 away

1.20

creates per match

0.96

1.47

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

1.20

Rayo Majadahonda

0.96

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

1.47

Rayo Majadahonda

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

66%

Real Valladolid II or Rayo Majadahonda

73%

Draw or Rayo Majadahonda

61%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

18%

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

74%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

38%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

15%

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

70%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

34%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

54%

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 1.20 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

39%

level

27%

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

34%

Real Valladolid II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

C. Perez

36'

Castri

41'

Juanjo

46'

Gorka Iturraspe← Juanjo

64'

Dali← Castri

65'

S. Erimuya

66'

Héctor Hernández← Mario García

72'

F. Rivera

72'

P. Osei

72'

Ángel Bastos← P. Osei

72'

Néstor Albiach← Javi Gómez

77'

R. Sanchez

77'

Raúl Sánchez

82'

Chuky San José← Fran Rivera

87'

Palomeque← Apa

87'

Néstor Susaeta← Rubén Sánchez

88'

90'

90+3'

90+3'

Real

Rayo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Júlio Baptista

64'▲Dali←▼Castri

82'▲Chuky San José←▼Fran Rivera

87'▲Palomeque←▼Apa

Real Valladolid II substitutes

DaliJoséPalomequeAlemánLópezRosaMarotoArroyoNietoSeguraMeykher

Manager: Abel Gómez

46'▲Gorka Iturraspe←▼Juanjo

66'▲Héctor Hernández←▼Mario García

72'▲Ángel Bastos←▼P. Osei

72'▲Néstor Albiach←▼Javi Gómez

87'▲Néstor Susaeta←▼Rubén Sánchez

Rayo Majadahonda substitutes

IturraspeHernándezBastosAlbiachSusaetaFernándezCompaoreLópezMawiTassembedo