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Real Valladolid II vs Racing Santander — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
12/5/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Valladolid II31%
×Draw26%
Racing Santander43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Valladolid II
1.21
Racing Santander
1.47

Racing Santander creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Valladolid II
1.20
Racing Santander
1.47

allows per match

Real Valladolid II
1.47
Racing Santander
1.21

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par
Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Racing Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw
57%
Real Valladolid II or Racing Santander
74%
Draw or Racing Santander
69%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
13%
Racing Santander wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
70%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
34%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
12%
Racing Santander 1+ goals
77%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
43%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
42%
Racing Santander (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 1.20 + Racing Santander defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Racing Santander attack 1.47 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more
31%
level
26%
Racing Santander scores more
43%

Racing Santander at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Valladolid II 3 – 0 Racing Santander

Real Valladolid II beat Racing Santander 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural in Valladolid.