Real Valladolid II 2–0 Osasuna II: Result & Stats

Real Valladolid II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Osasuna II

Miguel De la Fuente 62'

Kuki 10'

1/19/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Campo 2 Anexos del José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Valladolid II60%

×Draw23%

Osasuna II17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchOsasuna II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.83

Real Valladolid II

1.78

Osasuna II

0.83

Real Valladolid II creates 114% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 46 away

2.07

creates per match

0.96

0.71

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

2.07

Osasuna II

0.96

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

0.71

Osasuna II

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Osasuna II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Osasuna II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

83%

Real Valladolid II or Osasuna II

77%

Draw or Osasuna II

40%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

34%

Osasuna II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

83%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

53%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

26%

Osasuna II 1+ goals

56%

Osasuna II 2+ goals

20%

Osasuna II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

78%

Osasuna II (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Osasuna II away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 2.07 + Osasuna II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.78

Osasuna II attack 0.96 + Real Valladolid II defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

60%

level

23%

Osasuna II scores more

17%

Real Valladolid II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Kuki

60'

Gabri Lizarraga← Elur Meoqui

62'

Miguel De la Fuente

72'

Álvaro Muro← Diego Moreno

83'

Ekaitz Zarranz← Oier Calvillo

85'

Raúl Uche← Carlos Doncel

89'

G. Mancuso← Miguel De la Fuente

89'

Fran Álvarez← Kike Pérez

Real

Osasuna

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Fuente

García

Manager: Baraja

85'▲Raúl Uche←▼Carlos Doncel

89'▲G. Mancuso←▼Miguel De la Fuente

89'▲Fran Álvarez←▼Kike Pérez

Real Valladolid II substitutes

UcheMancusoÁlvarezCamposVilarrasaHacenMuñoz

Manager: Santi Castillejo

60'▲Gabri Lizarraga←▼Elur Meoqui

72'▲Álvaro Muro←▼Diego Moreno

83'▲Ekaitz Zarranz←▼Oier Calvillo

Osasuna II substitutes

LizarragaMuroZarranzBerruezoMartínezZabarte

Match Recap: Real Valladolid II vs Osasuna II

Real Valladolid II beat Osasuna II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 19, 2020.

Goals: Kuki (10'), Miguel De la Fuente (62').

The match was played at Campo 2 Anexos del José Zorrilla in Valladolid.

Real Valladolid II vs Osasuna II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Valladolid II vs Osasuna II