Real Valladolid II 3–2 Leioa: Result & Stats

Real Valladolid II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Leioa

Miguel De la Fuente 87' (pen), 15' (pen)

Carlos Doncel 40'

Raly 90+3'

Mikel Pradera 63'

9/8/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Valladolid II67%

×Draw21%

Leioa12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchLeioa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.68

Real Valladolid II

1.94

Leioa

0.68

Real Valladolid II creates 185% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

2.07

creates per match

0.64

0.71

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

2.07

Leioa

0.64

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

0.71

Leioa

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Leioa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Leioa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

88%

Real Valladolid II or Leioa

79%

Draw or Leioa

33%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

41%

Leioa wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

86%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

58%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

30%

Leioa 1+ goals

49%

Leioa 2+ goals

15%

Leioa 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

85%

Leioa (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Leioa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 2.07 + Leioa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.94

Leioa attack 0.64 + Real Valladolid II defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

67%

level

21%

Leioa scores more

12%

Real Valladolid II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Miguel De la FuentePenalty

17'

Alain Ribeiro← Aitor Morcillo

40'

Carlos Doncel

46'

Mikel Pradera← Marc Baró

48'

Castri← Óscar González

63'

Mikel Pradera

70'

Jaime Sánchez← Kuki

78'

Juan Segura← Roberto Corral

87'

Miguel De la FuentePenalty

90+3'

Raly

Real

Leioa

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Manager: Baraja

48'▲Castri←▼Óscar González

70'▲Jaime Sánchez←▼Kuki

78'▲Juan Segura←▼Roberto Corral

Real Valladolid II substitutes

CastriSánchezSeguraMancusoCamposAparicioVilarrasa

Manager: Jon Lambea

17'▲Alain Ribeiro←▼Aitor Morcillo

46'▲Mikel Pradera←▼Marc Baró

Leioa substitutes

RibeiroPraderaAtanganaChrisJuaristiEtxebarría

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Valladolid II 3–2 Leioa

Real Valladolid II beat Leioa 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 8, 2019.

Goals: Miguel De la Fuente (15' pen, 87' pen), Carlos Doncel (40'), Mikel Pradera (63'), Raly (90+3').

The match was played at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural in Valladolid.

Real Valladolid II vs Leioa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Valladolid II 3–2 Leioa