Real Valladolid II 2–2 Internacional de Madrid

Real Valladolid II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Internacional de Madrid

Víctor Narro 54'

Chuky San José 50'

Reguera 66'

Álvaro Martín 27'

11/20/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Real Valladolid II41%

×Draw27%

Internacional de Madrid31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.11

Real Valladolid II

1.31

Internacional de Madrid

1.11

Real Valladolid II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 33 away

1.20

creates per match

0.76

1.47

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

1.20

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

1.47

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

69%

Real Valladolid II or Internacional de Madrid

73%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

59%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

19%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

73%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

38%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

14%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

67%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

30%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

57%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 1.20 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

41%

level

27%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

31%

Real Valladolid II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

M. Bravo

27'

Álvaro Martín

34'

A. Masogo

46'

Diego Moreno← Sergio Nieto

46'

46'

50'

54'

58'

Alvar Herrero← David Barral

58'

Kenneth Soler← Antonio Montoro

66'

Arthur← Álex Masogo

66'

Reguera

75'

V. Narro

77'

Fran Rivera← Chuky San José

79'

F. Reguera

80'

Álex Zambrano← Reguera

80'

Álvaro Montero← Álvaro Martín

85'

Castri← Roberto Arroyo

90'

R. Ramos

90+1'

F. Rivera

Real

Internacional

▼

⚽

▼

Martín

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

José

▼

Arroyo

Manager: Júlio Baptista

46'▲Diego Moreno←▼Sergio Nieto

46'▲Kike Ríos←▼Palomeque

46'▲Víctor Narro←▼Dali

77'▲Fran Rivera←▼Chuky San José

85'▲Castri←▼Roberto Arroyo

Real Valladolid II substitutes

MorenoRíosNarroRiveraCastriAmoahRosaMarotoCasado

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

58'▲Alvar Herrero←▼David Barral

58'▲Kenneth Soler←▼Antonio Montoro

66'▲Arthur←▼Álex Masogo

80'▲Álex Zambrano←▼Reguera

80'▲Álvaro Montero←▼Álvaro Martín

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

HerreroSolerArthurZambranoMonteroGilSiuKolderiuPituBlázquezArribasYelco

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Valladolid II 2–2 Internacional de Madrid

Real Valladolid II and Internacional de Madrid drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 20, 2021.

Goals: Álvaro Martín (27'), Chuky San José (50'), Víctor Narro (54'), Reguera (66').

The match was played at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural in Valladolid.

Real Valladolid II vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Valladolid II 2–2 Internacional de Madrid