Real Valladolid II 0–4 Deportivo La Coruna

Real Valladolid II

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Deportivo La Coruna

Álvaro Rey 90+2' (pen)

N. Fedor 81', 10' (pen)

Alberto Quiles 24'

5/21/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Real Valladolid II29%

×Draw28%

Deportivo La Coruna43%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Coruna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.31

Real Valladolid II

1.02

Deportivo La Coruna

1.31

Deportivo La Coruna creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 68 away

1.20

creates per match

1.15

1.47

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

1.20

Deportivo La Coruna

1.15

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

1.47

Deportivo La Coruna

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

57%

Real Valladolid II or Deportivo La Coruna

72%

Draw or Deportivo La Coruna

71%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

11%

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

64%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

27%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

8%

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

40%

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 1.20 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.02

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

29%

level

28%

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

43%

Deportivo La Coruna at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

N. FedorPenalty

24'

Alberto Quiles

54'

H. Hernandez

65'

Apa← Moha

65'

Chuky San José← Iván Fresneda

67'

S. Erimuya

69'

Álvaro Rey← Alberto Quiles

69'

Peke← William de Camargo

71'

S. Ortuno

75'

I. Cantalejo

77'

Josep Calavera← Diego Villares

78'

Antonito

78'

Diego Moreno← Sergio Nieto

81'

N. Fedor

82'

Carlos Doncel← N. Fedor

82'

Diego Aguirre← Héctor Hernández

83'

Mario Maroto← Roberto Arroyo

89'

S. Erimuya

89'

S. Erimuya

90+2'

Álvaro ReyPenalty

Real

Deportivo

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Fedor

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Júlio Baptista

65'▲Apa←▼Moha

65'▲Chuky San José←▼Iván Fresneda

78'▲Diego Moreno←▼Sergio Nieto

83'▲Mario Maroto←▼Roberto Arroyo

Real Valladolid II substitutes

ApaJoséMorenoMarotoCastriDaliTorresAmoahRosaPalomequeCasadoMeykher

Manager: Borja Jiménez

69'▲Álvaro Rey←▼Alberto Quiles

69'▲Peke←▼William de Camargo

77'▲Josep Calavera←▼Diego Villares

82'▲Carlos Doncel←▼N. Fedor

82'▲Diego Aguirre←▼Héctor Hernández

Deportivo La Coruna substitutes

ReyPekeCalaveraDoncelAguirreGraneroSorianoLópezBreaTrigueros

Match Recap: Real Valladolid II vs Deportivo La Coruna

Deportivo La Coruna beat Real Valladolid II 4-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 21, 2022.

Goals: N. Fedor (10' pen, 81'), Alberto Quiles (24'), Álvaro Rey (90+2' pen).

The match was played at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural in Valladolid.

Real Valladolid II vs Deportivo La Coruna — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Valladolid II vs Deportivo La Coruna