Real Valladolid II 1–3 Celta de Vigo II

Real Valladolid II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Celta de Vigo II

Sergio Benito 70'

Alfon González 90+5'

Miguel Rodríguez 43'

Fabrício 21'

2/5/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Real Valladolid II34%

×Draw26%

Celta de Vigo II40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.40

Real Valladolid II

1.25

Celta de Vigo II

1.40

Celta de Vigo II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 120 away

1.20

creates per match

1.33

1.47

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

1.20

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

1.47

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

60%

Real Valladolid II or Celta de Vigo II

74%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

66%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

14%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

71%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

36%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

13%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

75%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

41%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

45%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 1.20 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

34%

level

26%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

40%

Celta de Vigo II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

21'

43'

59'

60'

Chuky San José← Castri

66'

Alfon González← Miguel Rodríguez

66'

Carlos Beitia← Javi Gómez

70'

T. Carrique

70'

Slavy← Moha

70'

Sergio Benito

80'

Fernando Medrano← Fabrício

80'

Fran López← T. Carrique

80'

L. De León← Cedric Teguia

89'

L. Rosa

90+5'

Alfon González

Real

Celta

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Rodríguez

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Júlio Baptista

60'▲Chuky San José←▼Castri

70'▲Slavy←▼Moha

Real Valladolid II substitutes

JoséSlavyApaDaliLópezRíosMarotoErimuyaCasadoGarri

Manager: Onésimo

66'▲Alfon González←▼Miguel Rodríguez

66'▲Carlos Beitia←▼Javi Gómez

80'▲Fernando Medrano←▼Fabrício

80'▲Fran López←▼T. Carrique

80'▲L. De León←▼Cedric Teguia

Celta de Vigo II substitutes

GonzálezBeitiaMedranoLópezLeónAlonsoGarcía

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Valladolid II 1–3 Celta de Vigo II

Celta de Vigo II beat Real Valladolid II 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 5, 2022.

Goals: Fabrício (21'), Miguel Rodríguez (43'), Sergio Benito (70'), Alfon González (90+5').

The match was played at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural in Valladolid.

Real Valladolid II vs Celta de Vigo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Valladolid II 1–3 Celta de Vigo II