Real Valladolid II 3–1 Barakaldo: Result & Stats

Real Valladolid II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Barakaldo

Carlos Doncel 62', 12'

Víctor García 10'

Pitu Doncel 54'

9/22/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Valladolid II65%

×Draw21%

Barakaldo14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchBarakaldo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.76

Real Valladolid II

1.96

Barakaldo

0.76

Real Valladolid II creates 158% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

2.07

creates per match

0.82

0.71

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

2.07

Barakaldo

0.82

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

0.71

Barakaldo

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Barakaldo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

86%

Real Valladolid II or Barakaldo

79%

Draw or Barakaldo

35%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

40%

Barakaldo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

86%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

58%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

31%

Barakaldo 1+ goals

53%

Barakaldo 2+ goals

18%

Barakaldo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

83%

Barakaldo (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 2.07 + Barakaldo defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.96

Barakaldo attack 0.82 + Real Valladolid II defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

65%

level

21%

Barakaldo scores more

14%

Real Valladolid II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Víctor García

12'

Carlos Doncel

46'

Juan Delgado← Adrián Hernández

54'

Pitu Doncel

60'

Samu Pinto← Sergio García

62'

Carlos Doncel

72'

M. El Hacen← Kike Pérez

72'

Iker Olaizola← Carlos Algarra

79'

Mario Soberón← Miguel De la Fuente

85'

G. Mancuso← Carlos Doncel

Real

Barakaldo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Doncel

▼

Fuente

⚽

García

Manager: Baraja

72'▲M. El Hacen←▼Kike Pérez

79'▲Mario Soberón←▼Miguel De la Fuente

85'▲G. Mancuso←▼Carlos Doncel

Real Valladolid II substitutes

HacenSoberónMancusoCamposAparicioSeguraGonzález

Manager: Hernán Pérez

46'▲Juan Delgado←▼Adrián Hernández

60'▲Samu Pinto←▼Sergio García

72'▲Iker Olaizola←▼Carlos Algarra

Barakaldo substitutes

DelgadoPintoOlaizolaRabanilloPicónLópezGalán

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Valladolid II 3–1 Barakaldo

Real Valladolid II beat Barakaldo 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 22, 2019.

Goals: Víctor García (10'), Carlos Doncel (12', 62'), Pitu Doncel (54').

The match was played at Campo 1 Anexos del José Zorrilla hierba natural in Valladolid.

Real Valladolid II vs Barakaldo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Valladolid II 3–1 Barakaldo