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Real Valladolid II vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Valladolid II
Real Valladolid II
CANC
00:00
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
3/15/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Campo 2 Anexos del José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Valladolid II56%
×Draw24%
Athletic Club II20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Valladolid II
1.74
Athletic Club II
0.95

Real Valladolid II creates 83% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 45 away

creates per match

Real Valladolid II
2.07
Athletic Club II
1.20

allows per match

Real Valladolid II
0.71
Athletic Club II
1.42

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw
80%
Real Valladolid II or Athletic Club II
76%
Draw or Athletic Club II
44%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+
31%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals
82%
Real Valladolid II 2+ goals
52%
Real Valladolid II 3+ goals
25%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
61%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
25%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)
73%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 2.07 + Athletic Club II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.74

Athletic Club II attack 1.20 + Real Valladolid II defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more
56%
level
24%
Athletic Club II scores more
20%

Real Valladolid II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Valladolid II vs Athletic Club II — Match Preview

Real Valladolid II face Athletic Club II on March 15, 2020 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Real Valladolid II host Athletic Club II at Campo 2 Anexos del José Zorrilla.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.