Real Valladolid II 4–0 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

Real Valladolid II

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Amorebieta

Kike Pérez 87'

Víctor García 71'

Kuki 50'

Fran Álvarez 27'

2/15/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Campo 2 Anexos del José Zorrilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Valladolid II52%

×Draw26%

Amorebieta22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Valladolid IIExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.89

Real Valladolid II

1.52

Amorebieta

0.89

Real Valladolid II creates 71% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 46 away

2.07

creates per match

1.07

0.71

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Real Valladolid II

2.07

Amorebieta

1.07

allows per match

Real Valladolid II

0.71

Amorebieta

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Valladolid II ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Valladolid II or draw

78%

Real Valladolid II or Amorebieta

74%

Draw or Amorebieta

48%

Winning margin

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

27%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

78%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

45%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

20%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

59%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

22%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

70%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Valladolid II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Valladolid II attack 2.07 + Amorebieta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.52

Amorebieta attack 1.07 + Real Valladolid II defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Valladolid II scores more

52%

level

26%

Amorebieta scores more

22%

Real Valladolid II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Valladolid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Fran Álvarez

46'

Raúl Uche← Miguel De la Fuente

50'

Kuki

56'

Aitor Ortega← Mikel Álvaro

62'

Gabri Salazar← Iker Bilbao

70'

Víctor García← Fran Álvarez

71'

Víctor García

78'

Pablo Muñoz← Kuki

81'

Oier Garai← Amorrortu

87'

Kike Pérez

Real

Amorebieta

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Álvarez

Navarro

⚽

Pérez

⚽

▼

Kuki

Doncel

▼

Fuente

Manager: Baraja

46'▲Raúl Uche←▼Miguel De la Fuente

70'▲Víctor García←▼Fran Álvarez

78'▲Pablo Muñoz←▼Kuki

Real Valladolid II substitutes

UcheGarcíaMuñozMarotoCorralPérezRubio

Manager: Íñigo Vélez

56'▲Aitor Ortega←▼Mikel Álvaro

62'▲Gabri Salazar←▼Iker Bilbao

81'▲Oier Garai←▼Amorrortu

Amorebieta substitutes

OrtegaSalazarGaraiPérezGarroMolinaRementeria

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Valladolid II 4–0 Amorebieta

Real Valladolid II beat Amorebieta 4-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 15, 2020.

Goals: Fran Álvarez (27'), Kuki (50'), Víctor García (71'), Kike Pérez (87').

The match was played at Campo 2 Anexos del José Zorrilla in Valladolid.

Real Valladolid II vs Amorebieta — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Valladolid II 4–0 Amorebieta