Real Unión 1–5 Real Murcia: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 4

Real Murcia

4/9/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Real Unión35%

×Draw29%

Real Murcia36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.13

Real Unión

1.11

Real Murcia

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 76 away

1.26

creates per match

1.18

1.07

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Real Unión

1.26

Real Murcia

1.18

allows per match

Real Unión

1.07

Real Murcia

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Real Murcia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

64%

Real Unión or Real Murcia

71%

Draw or Real Murcia

65%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

14%

Real Murcia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

67%

Real Unión 2+ goals

30%

Real Unión 3+ goals

10%

Real Murcia 1+ goals

68%

Real Murcia 2+ goals

31%

Real Murcia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

49%

Real Murcia (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.26 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Real Unión defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Real Unión scores more

35%

level

29%

Real Murcia scores more

36%

Real Murcia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Real Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff