Real Unión 0–1 Ourense CF: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ourense CF

11/24/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Unión47%

×Draw28%

Ourense CF26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchOurense CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.93

Real Unión

1.36

Ourense CF

0.93

Real Unión creates 46% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.46

creates per match

0.74

1.11

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Real Unión

1.46

Ourense CF

0.74

allows per match

Real Unión

1.11

Ourense CF

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Ourense CF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

74%

Real Unión or Ourense CF

72%

Draw or Ourense CF

53%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

22%

Ourense CF wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

74%

Real Unión 2+ goals

39%

Real Unión 3+ goals

16%

Ourense CF 1+ goals

61%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

24%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

65%

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Ourense CF defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ourense CF attack 0.74 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Unión scores more

47%

level

28%

Ourense CF scores more

26%

Real Unión at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff