Real Unión 1–1 Gimnastic: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gimnastic

Antón Escobar 88'

Pablo Fernández 19'

11/18/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Unión42%

×Draw28%

Gimnastic30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchGimnastic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.00

Real Unión

1.25

Gimnastic

1.00

Real Unión creates 25% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.46

creates per match

0.89

1.11

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Real Unión

1.46

Gimnastic

0.89

allows per match

Real Unión

1.11

Gimnastic

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Gimnastic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

70%

Real Unión or Gimnastic

72%

Draw or Gimnastic

58%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

19%

Gimnastic wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

71%

Real Unión 2+ goals

36%

Real Unión 3+ goals

13%

Gimnastic 1+ goals

63%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

26%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

59%

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Gimnastic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gimnastic attack 0.89 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Unión scores more

42%

level

28%

Gimnastic scores more

30%

Real Unión at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Pablo Fernández

27'

A. Oyarzun

39'

M. Montalvo

56'

Óscar Sanz← Marc Montalvo

56'

Pol Domingo← A. Țîrlea

62'

O. Sanz

70'

Íñigo Muñoz← Beobide

77'

Ander Gorostidi← Borja Sánchez

77'

Iker Recio← Jaume Jardí

78'

Asier Córdoba← Álex Cerdá

78'

Julio Martínez← Joseca

83'

M. Pochettino← Andy

86'

Peru Ruiz← Alain Oyarzun

87'

A. Gorostidi

88'

Antón Escobar

Real

Gimnastic

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Fran Justo

70'▲Íñigo Muñoz←▼Beobide

78'▲Asier Córdoba←▼Álex Cerdá

78'▲Julio Martínez←▼Joseca

86'▲Peru Ruiz←▼Alain Oyarzun

Real Unión substitutes

MuñozCórdobaMartínezRuizPérezAzkueSantosRiveroRieraAgirre

Manager: Dani Vidal

56'▲Óscar Sanz←▼Marc Montalvo

56'▲Pol Domingo←▼A. Țîrlea

77'▲Ander Gorostidi←▼Borja Sánchez

77'▲Iker Recio←▼Jaume Jardí

83'▲M. Pochettino←▼Andy

Gimnastic substitutes

SanzDomingoGorostidiRecioPochettinoParraSantamaríaRodríguez

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Unión 1–1 Gimnastic

Real Unión and Gimnastic drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 18, 2023.

Goals: Pablo Fernández (19'), Antón Escobar (88').

The match was played at Estadio Gal in Irún.

Real Unión vs Gimnastic — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Unión 1–1 Gimnastic