Real Unión 0–1 Eldense: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Eldense

Mario Soberón 63'

1/21/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Unión39%

×Draw29%

Eldense32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchEldense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.01

Real Unión

1.15

Eldense

1.01

Real Unión creates 14% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 38 away

1.26

creates per match

0.95

1.07

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Real Unión

1.26

Eldense

0.95

allows per match

Real Unión

1.07

Eldense

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Eldense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

68%

Real Unión or Eldense

71%

Draw or Eldense

61%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

16%

Eldense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

68%

Real Unión 2+ goals

32%

Real Unión 3+ goals

11%

Eldense 1+ goals

64%

Eldense 2+ goals

27%

Eldense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

55%

Eldense (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

Eldense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.26 + Eldense defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Eldense attack 0.95 + Real Unión defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Unión scores more

39%

level

29%

Eldense scores more

32%

Real Unión at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Víctor Parada← Antxón Jaso

60'

A. Oyarzun

63'

Mario Soberón

66'

Cris Montes← Fran Carnicer

76'

G. Gagua← Jon Ander

78'

Cristian López← Manu Nieto

78'

Xavi Estació← Jesús Clemente

86'

Iván Forte← Miguel Núñez

88'

Julen Aguirre← Miguel Santos

Real

Eldense

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: David Movilla

46'▲Víctor Parada←▼Antxón Jaso

76'▲G. Gagua←▼Jon Ander

88'▲Julen Aguirre←▼Miguel Santos

Real Unión substitutes

ParadaGaguaAguirreLuqueAgirre

Manager: Fernando Estévez

66'▲Cris Montes←▼Fran Carnicer

78'▲Cristian López←▼Manu Nieto

78'▲Xavi Estació←▼Jesús Clemente

86'▲Iván Forte←▼Miguel Núñez

Eldense substitutes

MontesLópezEstacióForteStamatakisPajareroJorqueraCapóCorreia

Match Recap: Real Unión vs Eldense

Eldense beat Real Unión 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 21, 2023.

Goals: Mario Soberón (63').

The match was played at Estadio Gal in Irún.

Real Unión vs Eldense — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Unión vs Eldense