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Real Unión vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Unión
Real Unión
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
5/4/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 35Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Real Unión43%
×Draw27%
Cultural Leonesa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Unión
1.39
Cultural Leonesa
1.14

Real Unión creates 22% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 88 away

creates per match

Real Unión
1.46
Cultural Leonesa
1.16

allows per match

Real Unión
1.11
Cultural Leonesa
1.31

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw
69%
Real Unión or Cultural Leonesa
73%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
57%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+
20%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals
75%
Real Unión 2+ goals
40%
Real Unión 3+ goals
16%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
68%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
32%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)
58%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Unión scores more
43%
level
27%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
31%

Real Unión at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Unión 0 – 0 Cultural Leonesa

Real Unión and Cultural Leonesa drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Gal in Irún.