Real Unión 1–1 Cultural Leonesa: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cultural Leonesa

Alain Eizmendi 35'

Sergio Benito 68'

9/1/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Unión39%

×Draw27%

Cultural Leonesa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.20

Real Unión

1.29

Cultural Leonesa

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

1.26

creates per match

1.33

1.07

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Real Unión

1.26

Cultural Leonesa

1.33

allows per match

Real Unión

1.07

Cultural Leonesa

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

66%

Real Unión or Cultural Leonesa

73%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

61%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

17%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

72%

Real Unión 2+ goals

37%

Real Unión 3+ goals

14%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

70%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

34%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

53%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.26 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.33 + Real Unión defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Unión scores more

39%

level

27%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

34%

Real Unión at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Alain Eizmendi

61'

Sergio Benito← Dani Pichín

68'

Sergio Benito

75'

Asier Etxaburu← Yoel Sola

76'

Augusto Galvan← Menudo

79'

Mikel Orbegozo← Jorge Galán

85'

Eneko Eizmendi← Aitor Aranzabe

86'

Sergio Marcos← A. Kawaya

Real

Cultural

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alberto Iturralde

75'▲Asier Etxaburu←▼Yoel Sola

79'▲Mikel Orbegozo←▼Jorge Galán

85'▲Eneko Eizmendi←▼Aitor Aranzabe

Real Unión substitutes

EtxaburuOrbegozoEizmendiLarruceaRecioAzkoitiSequeira

Manager: José Manuel Aira

61'▲Sergio Benito←▼Dani Pichín

76'▲Augusto Galvan←▼Menudo

86'▲Sergio Marcos←▼A. Kawaya

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

BenitoGalvanMarcosFernándezMontesEstellésGiffard