Real Unión 1–3 Barcelona B: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Barcelona B

Quique Rivero 90+3' (pen)

Guille Fernández 69'

Toni Fernández 56', 37'

4/20/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Unión40%

×Draw26%

Barcelona B34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchBarcelona B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.28

Real Unión

1.42

Barcelona B

1.28

Real Unión creates 11% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.46

creates per match

1.45

1.11

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Real Unión

1.46

Barcelona B

1.45

allows per match

Real Unión

1.11

Barcelona B

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Barcelona B+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Barcelona B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

66%

Real Unión or Barcelona B

74%

Draw or Barcelona B

60%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

19%

Barcelona B wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

76%

Real Unión 2+ goals

41%

Real Unión 3+ goals

17%

Barcelona B 1+ goals

72%

Barcelona B 2+ goals

37%

Barcelona B 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

54%

Barcelona B (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Barcelona B away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Barcelona B defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Barcelona B attack 1.45 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Unión scores more

40%

level

26%

Barcelona B scores more

34%

Real Unión at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

14'

14'

34'

37'

56'

59'

63'

Dani Rodríguez← Jan Virgili

63'

Guille Fernández← Toni Fernández

69'

Guille Fernández

73'

Daniel Garrido← Víctor San Bartolomé

73'

Víctor Eimil← Joseca Márquez

74'

Landry Farré← Raúl Dacosta

74'

N. Darvich← Jofre Torrents

81'

Berto Cayarga← Sergio Benito

81'

Javi Domínguez← Aitor Aranzabe

81'

Koldo Obieta← Sergio Santos

86'

Bikoue

86'

I. Olaortua

86'

Rubén López← Iván Cédric

90+2'

M. Mbacke

90+3'

Quique RiveroPenalty

Real

Barcelona

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Albert Carbó

73'▲Daniel Garrido←▼Víctor San Bartolomé

73'▲Víctor Eimil←▼Joseca Márquez

81'▲Berto Cayarga←▼Sergio Benito

81'▲Javi Domínguez←▼Aitor Aranzabe

81'▲Koldo Obieta←▼Sergio Santos

Real Unión substitutes

GarridoEimilCayargaDomínguezObietaPérezIrazusta

Manager: Sergi Milà

63'▲Dani Rodríguez←▼Jan Virgili

63'▲Guille Fernández←▼Toni Fernández

74'▲Landry Farré←▼Raúl Dacosta

74'▲N. Darvich←▼Jofre Torrents

86'▲Rubén López←▼Iván Cédric

Barcelona B substitutes

RodríguezFernándezFarréDarvichLópezYaakobishviliOlmedoPieraDomínguez

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Unión 1–3 Barcelona B

Barcelona B beat Real Unión 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 20, 2025.

Goals: Toni Fernández (37', 56'), Guille Fernández (69'), Quique Rivero (90+3' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Gal in Irún.

Real Unión vs Barcelona B — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Unión 1–3 Barcelona B