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Real Unión vs Badajoz — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Unión
Real Unión
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Badajoz
Badajoz
9/25/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Real Unión46%
×Draw28%
Badajoz26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Unión
1.36
Badajoz
0.94

Real Unión creates 45% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 37 away

creates per match

Real Unión
1.46
Badajoz
0.76

allows per match

Real Unión
1.11
Badajoz
1.27

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par
Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Badajoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw
74%
Real Unión or Badajoz
72%
Draw or Badajoz
54%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+
22%
Badajoz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals
74%
Real Unión 2+ goals
39%
Real Unión 3+ goals
16%
Badajoz 1+ goals
61%
Badajoz 2+ goals
24%
Badajoz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)
64%
Badajoz (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Badajoz away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Badajoz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.36

Badajoz attack 0.76 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Unión scores more
46%
level
28%
Badajoz scores more
26%

Real Unión at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Unión vs Badajoz

Badajoz beat Real Unión 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Gal in Irún.