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Real Unión vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Unión
Real Unión
Preview
16:00
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
3/14/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Stadium Gal
Big match
46%
Real Unión
model favours
46%26%27%

Real Unión score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Real Unión46%
×Draw26%
Athletic Club II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Unión
1.46
Athletic Club II
1.06

Real Unión creates 38% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

creates per match

Real Unión
1.46
Athletic Club II
1.02

allows per match

Real Unión
1.11
Athletic Club II
1.45

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw
73%
Real Unión or Athletic Club II
74%
Draw or Athletic Club II
54%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+
23%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals
77%
Real Unión 2+ goals
43%
Real Unión 3+ goals
18%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
65%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
29%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)
63%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Athletic Club II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Athletic Club II attack 1.02 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Unión scores more
46%
level
26%
Athletic Club II scores more
27%

Real Unión at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 79% of Real Unión’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Real Unión have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Unión
WLDLW
II
LWLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Unión vs Athletic Club II — Match Preview

Real Unión face Athletic Club II on March 14, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Real Unión host Athletic Club II at Stadium Gal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.