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Real Unión vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Unión
Real Unión
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
4/22/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Real Unión41%
×Draw27%
Athletic Club II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Unión
1.34
Athletic Club II
1.14

Real Unión creates 18% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

creates per match

Real Unión
1.26
Athletic Club II
1.20

allows per match

Real Unión
1.07
Athletic Club II
1.42

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw
68%
Real Unión or Athletic Club II
73%
Draw or Athletic Club II
59%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+
19%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals
74%
Real Unión 2+ goals
39%
Real Unión 3+ goals
15%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
68%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
32%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)
57%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.26 + Athletic Club II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Athletic Club II attack 1.20 + Real Unión defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Unión scores more
41%
level
27%
Athletic Club II scores more
32%

Real Unión at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Unión 2–1 Athletic Club II

Real Unión beat Athletic Club II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Gal in Irún.