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Real Unión de Tenerife vs Villa Santa Brígida — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villa Santa Brígida
Villa Santa Brígida
10/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Unión de Tenerife51%
×Draw27%
Villa Santa Brígida22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Unión de Tenerife
1.46
Villa Santa Brígida
0.86

Real Unión de Tenerife creates 70% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Real Unión de Tenerife
1.41
Villa Santa Brígida
0.96

allows per match

Real Unión de Tenerife
0.76
Villa Santa Brígida
1.51

finishing

Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par
Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión de Tenerife ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Unión de Tenerife or draw
78%
Real Unión de Tenerife or Villa Santa Brígida
73%
Draw or Villa Santa Brígida
49%

Winning margin

Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
26%
Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
77%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
43%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
18%
Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals
58%
Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals
21%
Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
70%
Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión de Tenerife at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 1.41 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
51%
level
27%
Villa Santa Brígida scores more
22%

Real Unión de Tenerife at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Unión de Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Real Unión de Tenerife 0–0 Villa Santa Brígida

Real Unión de Tenerife and Villa Santa Brígida drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 4, 2025.