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Real Unión de Tenerife vs Tenisca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tenisca
Tenisca
Andriu 84'
G. Izquierdo 72'
C. Batista 10'
9/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 1Campo de Fútbol de La Salud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Unión de Tenerife55%
×Draw24%
Tenisca21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Unión de Tenerife
1.68
Tenisca
0.94

Real Unión de Tenerife creates 79% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 60 away

creates per match

Real Unión de Tenerife
1.41
Tenisca
1.13

allows per match

Real Unión de Tenerife
0.76
Tenisca
1.95

finishing

Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par
Tenisca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión de Tenerife ↓

Tenisca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Unión de Tenerife or draw
79%
Real Unión de Tenerife or Tenisca
76%
Draw or Tenisca
45%

Winning margin

Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
30%
Tenisca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
81%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
50%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
24%
Tenisca 1+ goals
61%
Tenisca 2+ goals
24%
Tenisca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
72%
Tenisca (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión de Tenerife at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Tenisca away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 1.41 + Tenisca defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.68

Tenisca attack 1.13 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
55%
level
24%
Tenisca scores more
21%

Real Unión de Tenerife at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Unión de Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
C. Batista
72'
G. Izquierdo
84'
Andriu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Real Unión de Tenerife 2–1 Tenisca

Real Unión de Tenerife beat Tenisca 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 6, 2025.

Goals: C. Batista (10'), G. Izquierdo (72'), Andriu (84').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de La Salud in Santa Cruz de Tenerife.