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Real Unión de Tenerife vs San Bartolomé — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
San Bartolomé
San Bartolomé
S. Carbajal 88'
J. Yanes 42'
E. Niebla 10' (pen)
D. Soto 3'
R. Perez Gonzalez 73'
Sergio Mateo 19'
3/7/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 25Campo de Fútbol de La Salud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Unión de Tenerife52%
×Draw26%
San Bartolomé22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Unión de Tenerife
1.52
San Bartolomé
0.88

Real Unión de Tenerife creates 73% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Real Unión de Tenerife
1.41
San Bartolomé
1.00

allows per match

Real Unión de Tenerife
0.76
San Bartolomé
1.63

finishing

Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par
San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión de Tenerife ↓

San Bartolomé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Unión de Tenerife or draw
78%
Real Unión de Tenerife or San Bartolomé
74%
Draw or San Bartolomé
48%

Winning margin

Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
27%
San Bartolomé wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
78%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
45%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
20%
San Bartolomé 1+ goals
59%
San Bartolomé 2+ goals
22%
San Bartolomé 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
71%
San Bartolomé (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión de Tenerife at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

San Bartolomé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 1.41 + San Bartolomé defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

San Bartolomé attack 1.00 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
52%
level
26%
San Bartolomé scores more
22%

Real Unión de Tenerife at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Unión de Tenerife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
D. Soto
10'
E. NieblaPenalty
19'
Sergio Mateo
42'
J. Yanes
73'
R. Perez Gonzalez
88'
S. Carbajal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Unión de Tenerife vs San Bartolomé

Real Unión de Tenerife beat San Bartolomé 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 7, 2026.

Goals: D. Soto (3'), E. Niebla (10' pen), Sergio Mateo (19'), J. Yanes (42'), R. Perez Gonzalez (73'), S. Carbajal (88').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de La Salud in Santa Cruz de Tenerife.