Real Tomayapo 0–2 Royal Pari: Result & Stats

Real Tomayapo

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Royal Pari

2/27/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 3Estadio IV Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Real Tomayapo50%

×Draw25%

Royal Pari25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TomayapoExpected goals in this matchRoyal Pari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.09

Real Tomayapo

1.65

Royal Pari

1.09

Real Tomayapo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 112 away

1.37

creates per match

1.17

1.01

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Real Tomayapo

1.37

Royal Pari

1.17

allows per match

Real Tomayapo

1.01

Royal Pari

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Royal Pari+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tomayapo ↓

Royal Pari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real Tomayapo or draw

75%

Real Tomayapo or Royal Pari

75%

Draw or Royal Pari

50%

Winning margin

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+

27%

Royal Pari wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals

81%

Real Tomayapo 2+ goals

49%

Real Tomayapo 3+ goals

23%

Royal Pari 1+ goals

66%

Royal Pari 2+ goals

30%

Royal Pari 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)

67%

Royal Pari (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tomayapo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

Royal Pari away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tomayapo attack 1.37 + Royal Pari defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Royal Pari attack 1.17 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Tomayapo scores more

50%

level

25%

Royal Pari scores more

25%

Real Tomayapo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Tomayapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff