Real Tomayapo 1–0 Oriente Petrolero: Result & Stats

Real Tomayapo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oriente Petrolero

S. Cuiza 80'

12/3/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 27Estadio IV Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Real Tomayapo51%

×Draw24%

Oriente Petrolero25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TomayapoExpected goals in this matchOriente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.09

Real Tomayapo

1.69

Oriente Petrolero

1.09

Real Tomayapo creates 55% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 128 away

1.37

creates per match

1.17

1.01

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Real Tomayapo

1.37

Oriente Petrolero

1.17

allows per match

Real Tomayapo

1.01

Oriente Petrolero

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tomayapo ↓

Oriente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Tomayapo or draw

75%

Real Tomayapo or Oriente Petrolero

76%

Draw or Oriente Petrolero

49%

Winning margin

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+

28%

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals

82%

Real Tomayapo 2+ goals

50%

Real Tomayapo 3+ goals

24%

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

66%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

30%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)

68%

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tomayapo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tomayapo attack 1.37 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.69

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.17 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Tomayapo scores more

51%

level

24%

Oriente Petrolero scores more

25%

Real Tomayapo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Tomayapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

S. Alvarez

25'

R. Montero

46'

W. Chala← H. Vaca

56'

59'

63'

63'

63'

R. Amaral← K. F. Salvatierra Flores

68'

F. Nava

75'

A. Cordoba← D. Perez

75'

R. Centurion← F. Nava

77'

R. Centurion

80'

S. Cuiza↳ R. Lima

82'

L. Figueroa← R. Lima

84'

D. Cabrera← V. Cuellar

90'

D. Wayar

90'

A. Cordoba

90+7'

D. Pinto

Real

Oriente

12

52

87

3

28

19

▼

Vaca

40

Rodas

26

▼

Cuellar

37

▼

Nava

10

▼

Flores

91

Alvarez

1

Arauz

38

⚽

5

16

17

55

▼

Gatti

7

Aviles

8

▼

Mamani

31

Gil

6

A

▼

Lima

9

▼

Perez

Manager: Juan Cortes

63'▲D. Wayar←▼J. Mamani

63'▲D. Pinto←▼F. Gatti

75'▲A. Cordoba←▼D. Perez

82'▲L. Figueroa←▼R. Lima

Real Tomayapo substitutes

25Arancibia20Aguilar33Mamani15Orellana11Figueroa22Ramallo2Vera14Wayar28Cordoba30Hilton18Perea19Pinto

Manager: David Gonzalez

46'▲W. Chala←▼H. Vaca

63'▲R. Amaral←▼K. F. Salvatierra Flores

75'▲R. Centurion←▼F. Nava

84'▲D. Cabrera←▼V. Cuellar

Oriente Petrolero substitutes

22Arauz30Berdecio36Diez31Galvez56Guzman70Amaral55Vaca18Cabrera23Centurion11Chala50Tomianovic7Arabe