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Real Tomayapo vs Nacional Potosí — Primera División 2026

Real Tomayapo
Real Tomayapo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí
11/12/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 30Estadio IV Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Real Tomayapo47%
×Draw25%
Nacional Potosí27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tomayapo
1.55
Nacional Potosí
1.12

Real Tomayapo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 131 away

creates per match

Real Tomayapo
1.37
Nacional Potosí
1.23

allows per match

Real Tomayapo
1.01
Nacional Potosí
1.73

finishing

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par
Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tomayapo ↓

Nacional Potosí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Tomayapo or draw
73%
Real Tomayapo or Nacional Potosí
75%
Draw or Nacional Potosí
53%

Winning margin

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+
24%
Nacional Potosí wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals
79%
Real Tomayapo 2+ goals
46%
Real Tomayapo 3+ goals
20%
Nacional Potosí 1+ goals
67%
Nacional Potosí 2+ goals
31%
Nacional Potosí 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)
63%
Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tomayapo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

Nacional Potosí away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tomayapo attack 1.37 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55

Nacional Potosí attack 1.23 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Real Tomayapo scores more
47%
level
25%
Nacional Potosí scores more
27%

Real Tomayapo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Tomayapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Real Tomayapo 0–0 Nacional Potosí

Real Tomayapo and Nacional Potosí drew 0-0 in Primera División on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio IV Centenario in Tarija.