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Real Tomayapo vs Libertad — Primera División 2019

Real Tomayapo
Real Tomayapo
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Libertad
Libertad
10/4/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 26Estadio IV Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Real Tomayapo64%
×Draw20%
Libertad16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tomayapo
2.10
Libertad
0.92

Real Tomayapo creates 128% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 18 away

creates per match

Real Tomayapo
1.37
Libertad
0.83

allows per match

Real Tomayapo
1.01
Libertad
2.83

finishing

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par
Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tomayapo ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Real Tomayapo or draw
84%
Real Tomayapo or Libertad
80%
Draw or Libertad
36%

Winning margin

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+
40%
Libertad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals
88%
Real Tomayapo 2+ goals
62%
Real Tomayapo 3+ goals
35%
Libertad 1+ goals
60%
Libertad 2+ goals
23%
Libertad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)
81%
Libertad (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tomayapo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tomayapo attack 1.37 + Libertad defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.10

Libertad attack 0.83 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Real Tomayapo scores more
64%
level
20%
Libertad scores more
16%

Real Tomayapo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Real Tomayapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Tomayapo vs Libertad

Real Tomayapo beat Libertad 3-2 in Primera División on October 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio IV Centenario in Tarija.