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Real Tomayapo vs Jorge Wilstermann — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Real Tomayapo
Real Tomayapo
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
3/5/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio IV Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Real Tomayapo27%
×Draw27%
Jorge Wilstermann46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tomayapo
1.00
Jorge Wilstermann
1.38

Jorge Wilstermann creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Real Tomayapo
0.00
Jorge Wilstermann
0.75

allows per match

Real Tomayapo
2.00
Jorge Wilstermann
2.00

finishing

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par
Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tomayapo ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Tomayapo or draw
54%
Real Tomayapo or Jorge Wilstermann
73%
Draw or Jorge Wilstermann
73%

Winning margin

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+
10%
Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals
63%
Real Tomayapo 2+ goals
26%
Real Tomayapo 3+ goals
8%
Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
75%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
40%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)
37%
Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tomayapo at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tomayapo attack 0.00 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Jorge Wilstermann attack 0.75 + Real Tomayapo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Tomayapo scores more
27%
level
27%
Jorge Wilstermann scores more
46%

Jorge Wilstermann at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jorge Wilstermann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Real Tomayapo 0–0 Jorge Wilstermann

Real Tomayapo and Jorge Wilstermann drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio IV Centenario in Tarija.