Real Tomayapo 2–1 Independiente Petrolero

Real Tomayapo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Petrolero

J. Guerra 80'

R. Eguez 57'

R. Rivas 62' (pen)

7/12/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 10Estadio IV Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Real Tomayapo51%

×Draw23%

Independiente Petrolero26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TomayapoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.21

Real Tomayapo

1.79

Independiente Petrolero

1.21

Real Tomayapo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

1.31

creates per match

1.50

0.92

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Real Tomayapo

1.31

Independiente Petrolero

1.50

allows per match

Real Tomayapo

0.92

Independiente Petrolero

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tomayapo ↓

Independiente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Real Tomayapo or draw

74%

Real Tomayapo or Independiente Petrolero

77%

Draw or Independiente Petrolero

49%

Winning margin

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+

28%

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals

83%

Real Tomayapo 2+ goals

53%

Real Tomayapo 3+ goals

26%

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

70%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

34%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)

66%

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tomayapo at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tomayapo attack 1.31 + Independiente Petrolero defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.79

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.50 + Real Tomayapo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Tomayapo scores more

51%

level

23%

Independiente Petrolero scores more

26%

Real Tomayapo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Tomayapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

D. Ramallo← J. Castillo

36'

S. Torres

37'

D. Ramallo

51'

M. BejaranoGoal Disallowed - offside

57'

R. Eguez↳ D. Ramallo

62'

R. RivasPenalty

68'

C. Urdininea← D. Vargas

68'

A. Mercado← R. Cardozo

73'

J. Ribera

78'

C. Arabe← M. G. Barbery Gil

78'

R. Zamora← J. Villavicencio

78'

Willie← G. Cristaldo

80'

J. Guerra

83'

Robson← R. Cuellar Orti

89'

Thomaz← F. Rodriguez

90+2'

R. Zamora

90+7'

C. Urdininea

Real

Independiente

Manager: Rene HInojosa

21'▲D. Ramallo←▼J. Castillo

78'▲C. Arabe←▼M. G. Barbery Gil

83'▲Robson←▼R. Cuellar Orti

Manager: Leitao Thiago

68'▲C. Urdininea←▼D. Vargas

68'▲A. Mercado←▼R. Cardozo

78'▲R. Zamora←▼J. Villavicencio

78'▲Willie←▼G. Cristaldo

89'▲Thomaz←▼F. Rodriguez