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Real Tomayapo vs Independiente Petrolero — Primera División 2026

Real Tomayapo
Real Tomayapo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
11/24/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 32Estadio IV Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Real Tomayapo49%
×Draw24%
Independiente Petrolero26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tomayapo
1.65
Independiente Petrolero
1.14

Real Tomayapo creates 45% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 91 away

creates per match

Real Tomayapo
1.37
Independiente Petrolero
1.26

allows per match

Real Tomayapo
1.01
Independiente Petrolero
1.93

finishing

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par
Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tomayapo ↓

Independiente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Tomayapo or draw
74%
Real Tomayapo or Independiente Petrolero
76%
Draw or Independiente Petrolero
51%

Winning margin

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+
26%
Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals
81%
Real Tomayapo 2+ goals
49%
Real Tomayapo 3+ goals
23%
Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
68%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
32%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)
65%
Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tomayapo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tomayapo attack 1.37 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.65

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.26 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Tomayapo scores more
49%
level
24%
Independiente Petrolero scores more
26%

Real Tomayapo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Tomayapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Tomayapo vs Independiente Petrolero

Real Tomayapo beat Independiente Petrolero 2-1 in Primera División on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio IV Centenario in Tarija.