Real Tomayapo 2–0 Guabirá: Result & Stats

Real Tomayapo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Guabirá

M. Graneros 90+4'

L. Corulo 45' (pen)

7/23/2023

Primera División · Round 20Estadio IV Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Real Tomayapo57%

×Draw23%

Guabirá20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TomayapoExpected goals in this matchGuabirá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.97

Real Tomayapo

1.82

Guabirá

0.97

Real Tomayapo creates 88% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 128 away

1.37

creates per match

0.92

1.01

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

Real Tomayapo

1.37

Guabirá

0.92

allows per match

Real Tomayapo

1.01

Guabirá

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Tomayapo+0.00on par

Guabirá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tomayapo ↓

Guabirá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Tomayapo or draw

80%

Real Tomayapo or Guabirá

77%

Draw or Guabirá

43%

Winning margin

Real Tomayapo wins by 2+

33%

Guabirá wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Tomayapo 1+ goals

84%

Real Tomayapo 2+ goals

54%

Real Tomayapo 3+ goals

27%

Guabirá 1+ goals

62%

Guabirá 2+ goals

25%

Guabirá 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Tomayapo (draw refunded)

74%

Guabirá (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tomayapo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

Guabirá away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.28 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tomayapo attack 1.37 + Guabirá defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.82

Guabirá attack 0.92 + Real Tomayapo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Real Tomayapo scores more

57%

level

23%

Guabirá scores more

20%

Real Tomayapo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Real Tomayapo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Pedro Galindo

Real Tomayapo · G

7.3

Match Events

35'

Mauricio ChajturGoal cancelled

45+4'

Alejandro Gabriel Quintana

45'

Fran Supayabe Alpiri

45+2'

J. Orozco← C. Monges

45'

L. CoruloPenalty

46'

J. Velasco← R. Gil

46'

A. Melean← Sergio Llamas

49'

Jefinho

56'

M. Noble← Jeffinho

56'

L. Maygua← S. Villamíl

56'

O. Ribera← K. Mamani

71'

J. Rioja← P. Azogue

71'

J. Vogliotti← M. Chajtur

72'

Alejandro Melean

72'

C. Abastoflor← M. Gómez

74'

84'

90+3'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealGuabirá

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots12

3Corners4

17Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots12

3On Target1

4Off Target9

3Blocked2

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

264Total Passes343

176Accurate Passes265

67%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Real Tomayapo vs Guabirá

Real Tomayapo beat Guabirá 2-0 in Primera División on July 23, 2023.

Goals: L. Corulo (45' pen), M. Graneros (90+4').

Guabirá controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio IV Centenario in Tarija.

Real Tomayapo vs Guabirá — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Real Tomayapo vs Guabirá