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Real Titánico vs San Martín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Titánico
Real Titánico
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
San Martín
San Martín
1/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Real Titánico38%
×Draw26%
San Martín35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Titánico
1.34
San Martín
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 78 away

creates per match

Real Titánico
1.13
San Martín
1.12

allows per match

Real Titánico
1.43
San Martín
1.55

finishing

Real Titánico+0.00on par
San Martín+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Titánico ↓

San Martín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Titánico or draw
65%
Real Titánico or San Martín
74%
Draw or San Martín
62%

Winning margin

Real Titánico wins by 2+
17%
San Martín wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Real Titánico 1+ goals
74%
Real Titánico 2+ goals
39%
Real Titánico 3+ goals
15%
San Martín 1+ goals
72%
San Martín 2+ goals
36%
San Martín 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Titánico (draw refunded)
52%
San Martín (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Titánico at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 97 matches

San Martín away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Titánico attack 1.13 + San Martín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.34

San Martín attack 1.12 + Real Titánico defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Titánico scores more
38%
level
26%
San Martín scores more
35%

Real Titánico at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Titánico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Titánico 2–2 San Martín

Real Titánico and San Martín drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas in Pola de Laviana.