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Real Titánico vs Luarca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Titánico
Real Titánico
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Luarca
Luarca
2/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Real Titánico45%
×Draw26%
Luarca29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Titánico
1.43
Luarca
1.09

Real Titánico creates 31% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 51 away

creates per match

Real Titánico
1.13
Luarca
0.75

allows per match

Real Titánico
1.43
Luarca
1.73

finishing

Real Titánico+0.00on par
Luarca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Titánico ↓

Luarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Titánico or draw
71%
Real Titánico or Luarca
74%
Draw or Luarca
55%

Winning margin

Real Titánico wins by 2+
22%
Luarca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Titánico 1+ goals
76%
Real Titánico 2+ goals
42%
Real Titánico 3+ goals
17%
Luarca 1+ goals
66%
Luarca 2+ goals
30%
Luarca 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Titánico (draw refunded)
61%
Luarca (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Titánico at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 97 matches

Luarca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Titánico attack 1.13 + Luarca defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.43

Luarca attack 0.75 + Real Titánico defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Titánico scores more
45%
level
26%
Luarca scores more
29%

Real Titánico at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Titánico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Titánico 0–0 Luarca

Real Titánico and Luarca drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas in Pola de Laviana.