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Real Titánico vs Llanes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Titánico
Real Titánico
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Llanes
Llanes
1/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Real Titánico35%
×Draw27%
Llanes38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Titánico
1.25
Llanes
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 94 away

creates per match

Real Titánico
1.13
Llanes
1.19

allows per match

Real Titánico
1.43
Llanes
1.36

finishing

Real Titánico+0.00on par
Llanes+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Titánico ↓

Llanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Titánico or draw
62%
Real Titánico or Llanes
73%
Draw or Llanes
65%

Winning margin

Real Titánico wins by 2+
15%
Llanes wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Real Titánico 1+ goals
71%
Real Titánico 2+ goals
36%
Real Titánico 3+ goals
13%
Llanes 1+ goals
73%
Llanes 2+ goals
38%
Llanes 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Real Titánico (draw refunded)
48%
Llanes (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Titánico at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 97 matches

Llanes away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.36 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Titánico attack 1.13 + Llanes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Llanes attack 1.19 + Real Titánico defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Titánico scores more
35%
level
27%
Llanes scores more
38%

Llanes at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Llanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Titánico 0–0 Llanes

Real Titánico and Llanes drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas in Pola de Laviana.