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Real Titánico vs Langreo II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Titánico
Real Titánico
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Langreo II
Langreo II
5/1/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 38Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Titánico48%
×Draw24%
Langreo II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Titánico
1.65
Langreo II
1.21

Real Titánico creates 36% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Titánico
1.13
Langreo II
1.00

allows per match

Real Titánico
1.43
Langreo II
2.16

finishing

Real Titánico+0.00on par
Langreo II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Titánico ↓

Langreo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Real Titánico or draw
72%
Real Titánico or Langreo II
76%
Draw or Langreo II
52%

Winning margin

Real Titánico wins by 2+
25%
Langreo II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Titánico 1+ goals
81%
Real Titánico 2+ goals
49%
Real Titánico 3+ goals
23%
Langreo II 1+ goals
70%
Langreo II 2+ goals
34%
Langreo II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Real Titánico (draw refunded)
63%
Langreo II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Titánico at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 97 matches

Langreo II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Titánico attack 1.13 + Langreo II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.65

Langreo II attack 1.00 + Real Titánico defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Titánico scores more
48%
level
24%
Langreo II scores more
28%

Real Titánico at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Titánico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Titánico 4 – 0 Langreo II

Real Titánico beat Langreo II 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas in Pola de Laviana.