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Real Titánico vs Covadonga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Titánico
Real Titánico
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Covadonga
Covadonga
9/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Real Titánico25%
×Draw25%
Covadonga51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Titánico
1.04
Covadonga
1.61

Covadonga creates 55% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 83 away

creates per match

Real Titánico
1.13
Covadonga
1.80

allows per match

Real Titánico
1.43
Covadonga
0.96

finishing

Real Titánico+0.00on par
Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Titánico ↓

Covadonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Titánico or draw
49%
Real Titánico or Covadonga
75%
Draw or Covadonga
75%

Winning margin

Real Titánico wins by 2+
9%
Covadonga wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Real Titánico 1+ goals
65%
Real Titánico 2+ goals
28%
Real Titánico 3+ goals
9%
Covadonga 1+ goals
80%
Covadonga 2+ goals
48%
Covadonga 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Real Titánico (draw refunded)
33%
Covadonga (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Titánico at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 97 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Titánico attack 1.13 + Covadonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Covadonga attack 1.80 + Real Titánico defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Titánico scores more
25%
level
25%
Covadonga scores more
51%

Covadonga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Titánico 0–2 Covadonga

Covadonga beat Real Titánico 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio De Fútbol Las Tolvas in Pola de Laviana.