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Real Tamale vs TF Exponential — Division One League 2025

Real Tamale
Real Tamale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TF Exponential
TF Exponential
1/25/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 17Aliu Mahama sports stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Tamale73%
×Draw17%
TF Exponential9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tamale
2.21
TF Exponential
0.64

Real Tamale creates 245% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Real Tamale
2.07
TF Exponential
0.64

allows per match

Real Tamale
0.64
TF Exponential
2.36

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par
TF Exponential+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

TF Exponential →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw
91%
Real Tamale or TF Exponential
83%
Draw or TF Exponential
27%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+
49%
TF Exponential wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals
89%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
65%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
38%
TF Exponential 1+ goals
47%
TF Exponential 2+ goals
14%
TF Exponential 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)
89%
TF Exponential (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

TF Exponential away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 2.07 + TF Exponential defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.21

TF Exponential attack 0.64 + Real Tamale defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Real Tamale scores more
73%
level
17%
TF Exponential scores more
9%

Real Tamale at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Real Tamale 1–0 TF Exponential

Real Tamale beat TF Exponential 1-0 in Division One League on January 25, 2026.

The match was played at Aliu Mahama sports stadium in Tamale.