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Real Tamale vs Samartex — Cup 2022

Real Tamale
Real Tamaleadvanced
FT
2 – 1
Samartex
Samartex
2/26/2023CupCup · Round of 16Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Real Tamale57%
×Draw21%
Samartex22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tamale
2.08
Samartex
1.21

Real Tamale creates 72% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Real Tamale
2.50
Samartex
1.67

allows per match

Real Tamale
0.75
Samartex
1.67

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par
Samartex+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

Samartex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw
78%
Real Tamale or Samartex
79%
Draw or Samartex
43%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+
34%
Samartex wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals
87%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
61%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
34%
Samartex 1+ goals
70%
Samartex 2+ goals
34%
Samartex 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)
72%
Samartex (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Samartex away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 2.50 + Samartex defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Samartex attack 1.67 + Real Tamale defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Real Tamale scores more
57%
level
21%
Samartex scores more
22%

Real Tamale at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Tamale vs Samartex

Real Tamale beat Samartex 2-1 in Cup on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.